December Performance Review
Here is what I wrote the beginning of December as part of the Goals “Considering current market trends and sideways/bearish environment, I decided to put my whole energy and focus on studying. The recent macro analyses didn't suggest any significant bullish reversal; as a result, educating myself on setups and fixing process mistakes is the best I can do. “
Well… this was precisely what I did later in December. I already had enough data from the deep dives showing that the breakout setup does not perform well in the bearish environment, so I decided to stay on the side (went OFF mode, No FOMO) and let the bear enjoy the winter. In 2022, wishful thinking, not reading well the market environment and trying to outsmart the bear gave me some painful lessons.
Here is what was on the list and how it went:
- Finalize Breakouts Deep Dive. The results so far are excellent, and I look forward to wrap-up and doing the statistical analysis. / Done. Super overwhelmed by the feedback I got from you guys. Thank you!
- Print the A+ Breakouts and EP setups maps. / Not done yet, but it should be fixed soon.
- Start the study “Volume analysis in the wedge pattern.” The main goal is to see if, based on volume, I can easier identify the breakout day in the Breakout pattern./Study postponed to the second part of February
- Start the study on “How many Breakouts and EPs happened in 2022 (Bear Market)” and compare it with the other statistical data available. The assumption is that Breakouts and EPs setup have very low productivity in a bear or sideways market. To be confirmed… / Study changed its initial idea and purpose slightly. I decided to create the entire six years picture, and I call them Maps. And the first one, the Breakouts Map, which shows when the 963 breakouts happened in the last six years, is done. I was very surprised to see how data unveiled itself when the breakouts were added to the map (SPY chart). In this way, I can easily see the setup's behavior in both a bullish and bearish environment, and there are extra good quality learning points when you see this big picture.
December was a productive month. Good discipline and qualitative work. Self Leadership and Mental state… Sharp!
January 2023 goals are on the way!
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